Russell Sherwood Thursday, April 20, 2023
I've been playing with predictive models recently and whilst not developed for the CDCCC specifically, I have applied it to the event.
A very basic overview of the model is that it predicts the results of the pairing of the event, using a highly modified Elo model, taking into account both draw rate and White vs Black result expectation. This model is then run many times over (many thousands of time)
After two results.....
What does this mean - in many thousands of simulations, Lancashire came 1st 16.9% of the time, 2nd 13.99% and so on.
From a positive point of view, this does suggest that the draw did not give any team a significant advantage...with the differences being down to the overall difference in rating!
So all to play for. This will become much more interesting as results start to roll in.
CDCCCICCF
